My Latest Baseball Draft

Overview: It's a 12 team, 5x5 hosted on Sportsline, I had the 11th pick (WHIP It Good). I've never drafted with these guys before, but everyone is a member at the same website, so I knew most everyone's plan before going in. Draft for scarcity (ie Middle infielders) and counting stats, and worry about pitching in the later rounds.

My own Critique: I screwed the pooch, I think, by taking Carpenter and Oswalt in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Its something I usually don't do, but given my choices at Short, and knowing I'd be able to get Barfield for my 2B, I gambled that Bill Hall might make it back to me in the 5th. I was dead wrong and scrapped all my plans at that point. I have some serious issues at 1st and in the OF, but otherwise I feel pretty good about how I picked through the scraps.

I think I ended up with a pretty decent team, but take a look and let me know what I SHOULD have done instead of what I DID do. I'm interested to hear your opinions!

Draft Results
Round 1
1	Frozen Ropes	Albert Pujols (1B STL)
2	Unforgiven	Jose B. Reyes (SS NYM)
3	Substandard Deviants	Alfonso Soriano (OF CHC)
4	ScurvyDogs	Chase Utley (2B PHI)
5	Sox	Johan Santana (P MIN)
6	Mark Stanley	Alex Rodriguez (3B NYY)
7	Mizzle Wizzle	Miguel M. Cabrera (3B FLA)
8	Tom Kephart	David Ortiz (U BOS)
9	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Ryan Howard (1B PHI)
10	KenaleiZdurg	Carlos Beltran (OF NYM)
11	WHIP It Good	Carl Crawford (OF TB)
12	Got Beer	Derek Jeter (SS NYY)
Round 2
13	Got Beer	Mark Teixeira (1B TEX)
14	WHIP It Good	David Wright (3B NYM)
15	KenaleiZdurg	Vladimir Guerrero (OF ANA)
16	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Travis Hafner (U CLE)
17	Tom Kephart	Matt Holliday (OF COL)
18	Mizzle Wizzle	Ichiro Suzuki (OF SEA)
19	Mark Stanley	Manny Ramirez (OF BOS)
20	Sox	Grady Sizemore (OF CLE)
21	ScurvyDogs	Hanley Ramirez (SS FLA)
22	Substandard Deviants	Jimmy Rollins (SS PHI)
23	Unforgiven	Lance Berkman (1B HOU)
24	Frozen Ropes	Aramis Ramirez (3B CHC)
Round 3
25	Frozen Ropes	Rafael Furcal (SS LA)
26	Unforgiven	Bobby Abreu (OF NYY)
27	Substandard Deviants	Carlos N. Lee (OF HOU)
28	ScurvyDogs	Andruw Jones (OF ATL)
29	Sox	Derrek Lee (1B CHC)
30	Mark Stanley	Miguel Tejada (SS BAL)
31	Mizzle Wizzle	Michael Young (SS TEX)
32	Tom Kephart	Paul Konerko (1B CHW)
33	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Jason Bay (OF PIT)
34	KenaleiZdurg	Justin Morneau (1B MIN)
35	WHIP It Good	Chris Carpenter (P STL)
36	Got Beer	Francisco Rodriguez (P ANA)
Round 4
37	Got Beer	Garrett Atkins (3B COL)
38	WHIP It Good	Roy Oswalt (P HOU)
39	KenaleiZdurg	Brian Roberts (2B BAL)
40	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Juan Pierre (OF LA)
41	Tom Kephart	Vernon Wells (OF TOR)
42	Mizzle Wizzle	Robinson Cano (2B NYY)
43	Mark Stanley	Joe Mauer (C MIN)
44	Sox	Jake Peavy (P SD)
45	ScurvyDogs	Billy Wagner (P NYM)
46	Substandard Deviants	Bill Hall (SS MIL)
47	Unforgiven	Jermaine Dye (OF CHW)
48	Frozen Ropes	Joe Nathan (P MIN)
Round 5
49	Frozen Ropes	B.J. Ryan (P TOR)
50	Unforgiven	Mariano Rivera (P NYY)
51	Substandard Deviants	Prince Fielder (1B MIL)
52	ScurvyDogs	Carlos Delgado (1B NYM)
53	Sox	Jonathan Papelbon (P BOS)
54	Mark Stanley	Todd Helton (1B COL)
55	Mizzle Wizzle	Hideki Matsui (OF NYY)
56	Tom Kephart	Carlos Guillen (SS DET)
57	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Huston Street (P OAK)
58	KenaleiZdurg	Johnny Damon (OF NYY)
59	WHIP It Good	Victor J. Martinez (C CLE)
60	Got Beer	J.J. Putz (P SEA)
Round 6
61	Got Beer	Brian McCann (C ATL)
62	WHIP It Good	Ryan Zimmerman (3B WAS)
63	KenaleiZdurg	Francisco Cordero (P MIL)
64	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Ben Sheets (P MIL)
65	Tom Kephart	Torii Hunter (OF MIN)
66	Mizzle Wizzle	Bobby Jenks (P CHW)
67	Mark Stanley	Adam Dunn (OF CIN)
68	Sox	Daisuke Matsuzaka (P BOS)
69	ScurvyDogs	Brandon Webb (P ARI)
70	Substandard Deviants	Chad Cordero (P WAS)
71	Unforgiven	Roy Halladay (P TOR)
72	Frozen Ropes	Jim Thome (U CHW)
Round 7
73	Frozen Ropes	Mike Cameron (OF SD)
74	Unforgiven	Corey Patterson (OF BAL)
75	Substandard Deviants	Jeremy Bonderman (P DET)
76	ScurvyDogs	Richie Sexson (1B SEA)
77	Sox	Felipe Lopez (SS WAS)
78	Mark Stanley	Carlos Zambrano (P CHC)
79	Mizzle Wizzle	Alex Rios (OF TOR)
80	Tom Kephart	Felix Hernandez (P SEA)
81	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Chone Figgins (OF ANA)
82	KenaleiZdurg	Julio Lugo (SS BOS)
83	WHIP It Good	Josh Barfield (2B CLE)
84	Got Beer	Howie Kendrick (2B ANA)
Round 8
85	Got Beer	Cole Hamels (P PHI)
86	WHIP It Good	Gary Sheffield (OF DET)
87	KenaleiZdurg	Trevor Hoffman (P SD)
88	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Edgar Renteria (SS ATL)
89	Tom Kephart	Ian Kinsler (2B TEX)
90	Mizzle Wizzle	Delmon Young (OF TB)
91	Mark Stanley	Brad Lidge (P HOU)
92	Sox	John Lackey (P ANA)
93	ScurvyDogs	Coco Crisp (OF BOS)
94	Substandard Deviants	Alex Gordon (3B KC)
95	Unforgiven	Troy Glaus (3B TOR)
96	Frozen Ropes	Aubrey Huff (1B BAL)
Round 9
97	Frozen Ropes	Brett Myers (P PHI)
98	Unforgiven	Aaron Harang (P CIN)
99	Substandard Deviants	Chris Ray (P BAL)
100	ScurvyDogs	Tom Gordon (P PHI)
101	Sox	Scott Rolen (3B STL)
102	Mark Stanley	Rickie Weeks (2B MIL)
103	Mizzle Wizzle	Adrian Gonzalez (1B SD)
104	Tom Kephart	Edwin Encarnacion (3B CIN)
105	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Adam A. LaRoche (1B PIT)
106	KenaleiZdurg	Jeff Kent (2B LA)
107	WHIP It Good	Freddy Sanchez (3B PIT)
108	Got Beer	Scott Kazmir (P TB)
Round 10
109	Got Beer	Dan Haren (P OAK)
110	WHIP It Good	Jose Valverde (P ARI)
111	KenaleiZdurg	Jason Giambi (1B NYY)
112	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Nick Swisher (OF OAK)
113	Tom Kephart	Michael Barrett (C CHC)
114	Mizzle Wizzle	Erik Bedard (P BAL)
115	Mark Stanley	Rich Harden (P OAK)
116	Sox	Curt Schilling (P BOS)
117	ScurvyDogs	Matt Cain (P SF)
118	Substandard Deviants	Willy Taveras (OF COL)
119	Unforgiven	John Smoltz (P ATL)
120	Frozen Ropes	Chris B. Young (OF ARI)
Round 11
121	Frozen Ropes	Josh Beckett (P BOS)
122	Unforgiven	Lyle Overbay (1B TOR)
123	Substandard Deviants	Jason Schmidt (P LA)
124	ScurvyDogs	Rocco Baldelli (OF TB)
125	Sox	Stephen O. Drew (SS ARI)
126	Mark Stanley	Brandon Phillips (2B CIN)
127	Mizzle Wizzle	Ramon Hernandez (C BAL)
128	Tom Kephart	Mike Piazza (C OAK)
129	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Orlando Cabrera (SS ANA)
130	KenaleiZdurg	C.C. Sabathia (P CLE)
131	WHIP It Good	Dan Uggla (2B FLA)
132	Got Beer	Josh Willingham (OF FLA)
Round 12
133	Got Beer	J.D. Drew (OF BOS)
134	WHIP It Good	Brian Fuentes (P COL)
135	KenaleiZdurg	Jorge Posada (C NYY)
136	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Takashi Saito (P LA)
137	Tom Kephart	Michael Cuddyer (OF MIN)
138	Mizzle Wizzle	Dave Bush (P MIL)
139	Mark Stanley	Jason Isringhausen (P STL)
140	Sox	Adrian Beltre (3B SEA)
141	ScurvyDogs	Frank Thomas (U TOR)
142	Substandard Deviants	Jered Weaver (P ANA)
143	Unforgiven	Kenji Johjima (C SEA)
144	Frozen Ropes	Ivan Rodriguez (C DET)
Round 13
145	Frozen Ropes	Orlando Hudson (2B ARI)
146	Unforgiven	Tadahito Iguchi (2B CHW)
147	Substandard Deviants	Eric Gagne (P TEX)
148	ScurvyDogs	Chris R. Young (P SD)
149	Sox	Russell Martin (C LA)
150	Mark Stanley	Chipper Jones (3B ATL)
151	Mizzle Wizzle	Octavio Dotel (P KC)
152	Tom Kephart	A.J. Burnett (P TOR)
153	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Brad Hawpe (OF COL)
154	KenaleiZdurg	Nick Markakis (OF BAL)
155	WHIP It Good	Conor Jackson (1B ARI)
156	Got Beer	Mark Teahen (3B KC)
Round 14
157	Got Beer	Magglio Ordonez (OF DET)
158	WHIP It Good	Ryan Dempster (P CHC)
159	KenaleiZdurg	Morgan Ensberg (3B HOU)
160	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Mike Mussina (P NYY)
161	Tom Kephart	Ray Durham (2B SF)
162	Mizzle Wizzle	Ty Wigginton (1B TB)
163	Mark Stanley	Pat Burrell (OF PHI)
164	Sox	Bob Wickman (P ATL)
165	ScurvyDogs	Scott Olsen (P FLA)
166	Substandard Deviants	Carlos Quentin (OF ARI)
167	Unforgiven	Javier Vazquez (P CHW)
168	Frozen Ropes	Jeff Francoeur (OF ATL)
Round 15
169	Frozen Ropes	Bronson Arroyo (P CIN)
170	Unforgiven	Akinori Otsuka (P TEX)
171	Substandard Deviants	Ryan P. Freel (OF CIN)
172	ScurvyDogs	Ian Snell (P PIT)
173	Sox	Raul Ibanez (OF SEA)
174	Mark Stanley	Justin Verlander (P DET)
175	Mizzle Wizzle	Andy Pettitte (P NYY)
176	Tom Kephart	Joe Crede (3B CHW)
177	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Randy Johnson (P ARI)
178	KenaleiZdurg	Dave Roberts (OF SF)
179	WHIP It Good	Adam Wainwright (P STL)
180	Got Beer	Luis Castillo (2B MIN)
Round 16
181	Got Beer	Ryan Shealy (1B KC)
182	WHIP It Good	Barry Zito (P SF)
183	KenaleiZdurg	Kelvim Escobar (P ANA)
184	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Jorge Julio (P FLA)
185	Tom Kephart	John Patterson (P WAS)
186	Mizzle Wizzle	Anthony Reyes (P STL)
187	Mark Stanley	Joe Borowski (P CLE)
188	Sox	Barry Bonds (OF SF)
189	ScurvyDogs	Aaron Rowand (OF PHI)
190	Substandard Deviants	Rich Hill (P CHC)
191	Unforgiven	Salomon Torres (P PIT)
192	Frozen Ropes	Scott Podsednik (OF CHW)
Round 17
193	Frozen Ropes	Todd Jones (P DET)
194	Unforgiven	Rich Aurilia (3B SF)
195	Substandard Deviants	Boof Bonser (P MIN)
196	ScurvyDogs	Craig Monroe (OF DET)
197	Sox	Austin Kearns (OF WAS)
198	Mark Stanley	Dontrelle Willis (P FLA)
199	Mizzle Wizzle	Tim Hudson (P ATL)
200	Tom Kephart	Moises Alou (OF NYM)
201	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	A.J. Pierzynski (C CHW)
202	KenaleiZdurg	Nomar Garciaparra (1B LA)
203	WHIP It Good	Eric Byrnes (OF ARI)
204	Got Beer	Derek Lowe (P LA)
Round 18
205	Got Beer	Joel Zumaya (P DET)
206	WHIP It Good	Khalil Greene (SS SD)
207	KenaleiZdurg	Ted Lilly (P CHC)
208	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Armando Benitez (P SF)
209	Tom Kephart	James Shields (P TB)
210	Mizzle Wizzle	Adam Loewen (P BAL)
211	Mark Stanley	Dustin Hermanson (P CIN)
212	Sox	B.J. Upton (3B TB)
213	ScurvyDogs	Chad Tracy (3B ARI)
214	Substandard Deviants	Ervin Santana (P ANA)
215	Unforgiven	Kevin Millwood (P TEX)
216	Frozen Ropes	Chris Capuano (P MIL)
Round 19
217	Frozen Ropes	Placido Polanco (2B DET)
218	Unforgiven	Chris Burke (2B HOU)
219	Substandard Deviants	Marcus Giles (2B SD)
220	ScurvyDogs	Kelly Johnson (2B ATL)
221	Sox	Kenny Lofton (OF TEX)
222	Mark Stanley	Chris Duffy (OF PIT)
223	Mizzle Wizzle	Jonathan Broxton (P LA)
224	Tom Kephart	Greg Maddux (P SD)
225	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Eric Chavez (3B OAK)
226	KenaleiZdurg	Chuck H. James (P ATL)
227	WHIP It Good	Gary Matthews (OF ANA)
228	Got Beer	Jason Kubel (OF MIN)
Round 20
229	Got Beer	Brad Penny (P LA)
230	WHIP It Good	Casey Kotchman (1B ANA)
231	KenaleiZdurg	Randy Wolf (P LA)
232	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Pedro Martinez (P NYM)
233	Tom Kephart	Nate Robertson (P DET)
234	Mizzle Wizzle	Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B SD)
235	Mark Stanley	Brian Giles (OF SD)
236	Sox	Tom Glavine (P NYM)
237	ScurvyDogs	Vicente Padilla (P TEX)
238	Substandard Deviants	Mike Jacobs (1B FLA)
239	Unforgiven	Scot Shields (P ANA)
240	Frozen Ropes	Adam Eaton (P PHI)
Round 21
241	Frozen Ropes	David DeJesus (OF KC)
242	Unforgiven	Corey C. Hart (OF MIL)
243	Substandard Deviants	Matt Murton (OF CHC)
244	ScurvyDogs	Daniel Cabrera (P BAL)
245	Sox	Jacque Jones (OF CHC)
246	Mark Stanley	Gerald Laird (C TEX)
247	Mizzle Wizzle	Hank Blalock (3B TEX)
248	Tom Kephart	Tom S. Gorzelanny (P PIT)
249	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Claudio Vargas (P MIL)
250	KenaleiZdurg	Dan Wheeler (P HOU)
251	WHIP It Good	Shane Victorino (OF PHI)
252	Got Beer	David Dellucci (OF CLE)
Round 22
253	Got Beer	Bob Howry (P CHC)
254	WHIP It Good	Scott Linebrink (P SD)
255	KenaleiZdurg	Jose A. Contreras (P CHW)
256	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Bengie Molina (C SF)
257	Tom Kephart	Anibal Sanchez (P FLA)
258	Mizzle Wizzle	Ryan Church (OF WAS)
259	Mark Stanley	Curtis Granderson (OF DET)
260	Sox	Jason Varitek (C BOS)
261	ScurvyDogs	Johnny Estrada (C MIL)
262	Substandard Deviants	Chris Iannetta (C COL)
263	Unforgiven	Paul Lo Duca (C NYM)
264	Frozen Ropes	Mike Napoli (C ANA)
Round 23
265	Frozen Ropes	Doug Davis (P ARI)
266	Unforgiven	Shea Hillenbrand (1B ANA)
267	Substandard Deviants	Chris Duncan (OF STL)
268	ScurvyDogs	Josh Bard (C SD)
269	Sox	Jake Westbrook (P CLE)
270	Mark Stanley	Freddy An. Garcia (P PHI)
271	Mizzle Wizzle	David Ross (C CIN)
272	Tom Kephart	Rafael Soriano (P ATL)
273	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Jorge L. Cantu (2B TB)
274	KenaleiZdurg	Jason Kendall (C OAK)
275	WHIP It Good	Ronny Paulino (C PIT)
276	Got Beer	Gregg Zaun (C TOR)
Round 24
277	Got Beer	Zach Duke (P PIT)
278	WHIP It Good	Jason Jennings (P HOU)
279	KenaleiZdurg	Jose Guillen (OF SEA)
280	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Chien-Ming Wang (P NYY)
281	Tom Kephart	Wes Helms (3B PHI)
282	Mizzle Wizzle	Troy Tulowitzki (SS COL)
283	Mark Stanley	Pat Neshek (P MIN)
284	Sox	Jose Lopez (2B SEA)
285	ScurvyDogs	Bobby Crosby (SS OAK)
286	Substandard Deviants	Jonny J. Gomes (U TB)
287	Unforgiven	Mark DeRosa (2B CHC)
288	Frozen Ropes	Brandon McCarthy (P TEX)
Round 25
289	Frozen Ropes	Ken Griffey (OF CIN)
290	Unforgiven	Jeremy Hermida (OF FLA)
291	Substandard Deviants	Rod Barajas (C PHI)
292	ScurvyDogs	Melvin Mora (3B BAL)
293	Sox	Kevin Youkilis (1B BOS)
294	Mark Stanley	Mike Pelfrey (P NYM)
295	Mizzle Wizzle	Matt Garza (P MIN)
296	Tom Kephart	Brad B. Wilkerson (OF TEX)
297	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Nelson R. Cruz (OF TEX)
298	KenaleiZdurg	Al Reyes (P TB)
299	WHIP It Good	Clay Hensley (P SD)
300	Got Beer	Dan Johnson (1B OAK)
Round 26
301	Got Beer	Justin Duchscherer (P OAK)
302	WHIP It Good	Jim Edmonds (OF STL)
303	KenaleiZdurg	Zack Greinke (P KC)
304	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Chad Billingsley (P LA)
305	Tom Kephart	Ryan Theriot (2B CHC)
306	Mizzle Wizzle	Erick Aybar (SS ANA)
307	Mark Stanley	Cliff Lee (P CLE)
308	Sox	John Maine (P NYM)
309	ScurvyDogs	Milton Bradley (OF OAK)
310	Substandard Deviants	Matt D. Capps (P PIT)
311	Unforgiven	Oliver Perez (P NYM)
312	Frozen Ropes	Kei Igawa (P NYY)
Round 27
313	Frozen Ropes	Jay Gibbons (OF BAL)
314	Unforgiven	Mark Prior (P CHC)
315	Substandard Deviants	Sammy Sosa (OF TEX)
316	ScurvyDogs	Wily Mo Pena (OF BOS)
317	Sox	Mike Gonzalez (P ATL)
318	Mark Stanley	Nick Punto (3B MIN)
319	Mizzle Wizzle	Homer Bailey (P CIN)
320	Tom Kephart	Tim Lincecum (P SF)
321	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	Wade Miller (P CHC)
322	KenaleiZdurg	Kip Wells (P STL)
323	WHIP It Good	Bartolo Colon (P ANA)
324	Got Beer	Luke Scott (OF HOU)
Round 28
325	Got Beer	Fernando Rodney (P DET)
326	WHIP It Good	Scott Hairston (OF ARI)
327	KenaleiZdurg	Orlando Hernandez (P NYM)
328	Kerosenedan's Hot Tamales	John Danks (P CHW)
329	Tom Kephart	Jeremy Sowers (P CLE)
330	Mizzle Wizzle	Adam Lind (OF TOR)
331	Mark Stanley	Garret Anderson (OF ANA)
332	Sox	Casey Blake (OF CLE)
333	ScurvyDogs	Shawn Hill (P WAS)
334	Substandard Deviants	James Loney (1B LA)
335	Unforgiven	Jhonny Peralta (SS CLE)
336	Frozen Ropes	Omar Vizquel (SS SF)

Top young hurlers always seem to top people’s wishlists during draft season. Last year was an explosion of young pitchers making an impact in the majors. The amount of talent that was successful was unparalleled to previous years. Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels and a bunch of other young arms help determined the winners of many fantasy leagues last year. Now, a year later, how will these guys survive the sophomore slump? It’s anyone guess, but a significant portion of these guys along with a bunch of younger “veterans” saw a significant increase in innings pitched. Will it lead to an injury this year? Will it contribute to a “sophomore slump”? It’s one factor out of many, but one that can be an indicator to a poorer performance the following year.

From 2004 to 2005 there were 15 starting pitchers under the ageof 30 who saw an increase of innings pitched of a least 40. Of those, seven had decreases in value in 2006. Of those seven, four of those had what wouldbe considered significant decreases in value. Here are the four pitchers who appear to be the most effected by significant workload increases:

Pitcher	Age	Tm	05 increase	06 $ Change
Patterson,John	28	WAS	100.1	$(14)
Chacon,Shawn	28	PIT	88.1	$(12)
Seo,Jae	29	TAM	71.8	$(14)
Towers,Josh	29	TOR	56.1	$(23)

Patterson, the TGR poster-child in 2005 for sleeper pitchers, spent most of the season on the DL managing only 8 starts. The other three posted promising seasons in2005, but were major disappointments in 2006, even though the expectations werenot as high as Patterson. 25% of thepitchers who saw workload increases in 2005, disappointed in 2006, while almost50% actually saw a decrease in value. While this is only one years worth of data, thetrend also exists in 2003 and in 2004. Some names from those years? How about Mark Prior, Brad Penny, Eric Milton, and Byung Yung Kim? All promising arms, all ran into into injury issues the year after a significant increase ininnings.

The pool of players to watch in 2007 is exactly the same size, 15. The major difference is that the numbers of increased innings pitched is significantly higher this year., and the names and pedigrees are significantly higher. Francisco Liriano has already succumbed to Tommy John surgery, but that may have more to do with his jump from 156 innings in 2004 to 192 innings in 2005 (all in the minors),as he only ended up pitching 123 innings last year. Does this mean we’ll see more injuries this year? Maybe, maybenot. But the following pitchers do bear watching and perhaps discounting their value based on this increased workload.

pitcher	Age	Tm	06 Incr/(Decr)
Weaver,Jered	24	LAA	124.0
Cook,Aaron	27	COL	104.1
Hamels,Cole	22	PHI	113.1
Jennings,Jason	28	COL	90.0
Olsen,Scott	22	FLA	80.0
Halladay,Roy	29	TOR	78.8
Sanchez,Anibal	22	FLA	64.5
Marshall,Sean	24	CHC	53.4
Padilla,Vicente	29	TEX	53.0
Armas Jr.,Tony	28	WAS	52.9
Hensley,Clay	27	SD	49.7
Bedard,Erik	27	BAL	47.9
Verlander,Justin	23	DET	47.6
Madson,Ryan	26	PHI	47.1
Meche,Gil	28	SEA	43.1

Some of the pitchers experienced injuries in 2005 (Cook, Hamels, Jennings,Olsen, Halladay, Padilla, Armas,Bedard,) so they should already have some discountbuilt into their prices to account for the injury history. Should this preclude them from the list?Probably not, since only one season separates them from a major injury, and coming back too quickly can hinder one’sperformance. Two of these pitchersmoved from relief to starting (Hensley, Madson)though they were both starters in the minors, so perhaps the effects ofincreased innings may not effect them as much, thoughpast history shows that’s not always the case.

The remaining players definitely bear watching and one is alreadyshowing warning signs of more trouble ahead.

• Jered Weaver is experiencing issues with biceps tendonitis and, in fact, started his off-season workouts a couple weeks later to rest his shoulder.
• Cole Hamels, with his history of injuries, definitely bears watching, though he’s hit the ground running this spring, along with a few other of the pitchers on this list.
• Anibel Sanchez doesn’t have a history of arm problems, but has moved up through the ranks fairly quickly. His no-hitter last year is what’s really put him on the map, but his strikeout rate dropped after his promotion and his walk rate rose. Hopefully, missing AAA ball won’t delay his growth, but the Marlins have burned through more than their share of pitchers in the past
• Sean Marshall was pressed into duties after injuries to various Cubs starters (surprise!), and didn’t do well. He racked up a bunch of innings, but hit the wall later in the season, and is now experiencing “fatigue” in his pitching shoulder. He’s expected to start the season in the minors, so hopefully, they’ll baby him a little more.
• Justin Verlander burst onto the scene last year with teammate Joel Zumaya. Both were starters in the minors, but Verlander was shut down at the end of 2005 because of a shoulder issue. He earned a spot in the rotation in 2006 and after all was said and done ended up pitching 70 more innings than the previous year when you include the playoff run. Verlander, like Weaver, took extra time off in the offseason to rest, so he’s behind in getting ready for the season, and his spring stats have shown it. Don’t be surprised if he gets off to a slow start this year.
• Gil Meche parlayed his 11-8 record with a 4.48 ERA and 1.43 WHIP into a $55 million deal with the Royals. If only we could all turn mediocrity into huge pay raises. Moving to the Royals certainly doesn’t make him a target of many fantasy owners this year, and certainly don’t expect the huge increase in innings to get this guy to the next level. In fact, he might even fade away into obscurity.

Hopefully, this article doesn’tsteer you completely away from these guys, but ideally it will readjust yourexpectations for some of them and prevent you from overpaying or overdrafting them. While these pitchers carry risk, sometimes taking on risk is the onlyway to be the last one standing at the end of the year.

Five Players to Avoid

Every year I build a list of list of players I expect to disappoint. Some of these I avoid completely, while others I would only take at a deep discount. They are players that I’m actively not looking to draft. If there’s another player with similar numbers available, I’m more likely to take the other player than one of these guys. About 70% of the reason I’m avoiding these guys is strictly gut, which means there’s a 30% chance I’ll be wrong about them. I’d rather be wrong and miss out on them, then right and be stuck with underperforming or injured players. The price on these guys would have to drop dramatically before I drafted or purchased one of them.

1. Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida Marlins – This rule 5 draft pick is stirring up a lot of talk this spring. Some people expect more of the same, while others think last year was a fluke. There are cases that can be made for both sides, but I think one thing is clear. No one expects him to improve on last year. Which means, best case scenario, it’s more of the same. There are a couple of warning signs that point to a “sophomore slump” for Uggla. He had a horrific September hitting .221 with 15 runs and 10 RBI in 122 At Bats. He also had a career high 611 at bats. While this could simply be that he wore down as the season went on, I think it was more of a case of his returning to the mean. I don’t think he’ll be horrible, but I do think he’ll be closer to average.

2. Jermaine Dye, OF Chicago White Sox – Dye had a career year last year. While Dye has been relatively healthy for the past three years (averaging 143 games/year), and he’ll still be in a potent White Sox lineup, everything about last years line screams career year. Often there’s no where to go but down. He jumped dramatically in every category. One of the reasons he was so good for many teams last year was that he came cheap. He’s not going cheap this year, and, in fact, many people are paying for last years stats. For me, I think 2006 was an aberration, though an argument can be made that he’s been trending up for the past few seasons. The leap in 2006 was far too much though, and likelihood of him maintaining that is slim.

3. Vernon Wells, OF Toronto Blue Jays – After two disappointing seasons in 2004 and 2005, Vernon Wells broke out in a big way last year. So big, it netted him a 7 year $126 million deal. Overall, his line for the season looks very good, but there are a couple things that have me worried (other than the huge deal). His home/road splits were ridiculous last year (28 HR at home, 8 on the road). That alone doesn’t necessarily scare me, but add in the fact that Wells fell off considerable in August and September (6 Homeruns in 2 months, .268 BA with a .357 Slugging) and I start seeing visions of the prior two years. As a late second round pick, there’s about half a dozen other OF without the warning signs that I’d rather have.

4. David Bush, SP Milwaukee Brewers – Several things worry me about David Bush, and it’s hard for me to admit, since I rode him to a couple championships last year. The first thing that worries me is all the hype he’s getting as a “sleeper” candidate. That likely pushed him out of my price range anyways. He’s a control pitcher, not a power pitcher. That doesn’t mean he can’t strike guys out, he struck out plenty last year, it just means is margin of error is smaller. If his control isn’t on, it’s going to be harder for him to get through innings without any damage. Combine that with the fact that he’s not an extreme groundball pitcher (think Brandon Webb), and that he gave up 26 homeruns last year, and it leads me to believe last year was a “perfect storm” of a year. David Bush is still a very good pitcher, I just don’t think he’s as good as he was last year.

5. Julio Lugo, SS Boston Red Sox – Another guy getting lots of “Sleeper” votes, simply by moving to Boston and becoming their starting shortstop. People are still projecting tons of SB for this guy, but frankly, I just don’t get it. He’s a career .277 hitter with an On Base Percentage of .340. The Red Sox don’t run. They run less than any team in the majors. Just ask Johnny Damon. Take away the stolen bases and you’re left with a mediocre shortstop that’ll likely score more runs than he has, and since he’ll be batting leadoff, even less RBI’s. On the field, he’ll probably help the BoSox. In fantasy, there are a lot of other options out there who will do just as well if not better and still provide you the 15 or so bags Lugo will end up with.

5 to Watch (and a few more)

Every season, there's a consensus list of "sleeper" players that end up on every website, magazine, and fantasy player's draft list. These are players that people expect to have great seasons, but haven't yet done it. Rather than tell you the same things you'll read everywhere else, I'd rather point out players that I wouldn't consider sleepers because, likely, they’ve failed to take advantage of the opportunities when they’ve had them. They are, however, in a position to make that next step, or at least return to where they were, this year.

• Dan Johnson, 1B (Oak) - Last year was a disaster for Johnson, no doubt. His .234 batting average, 9 HRs and 37 RBI's certainly aren't exactly a selling point, but he had a very solid rookie season, and absolutely killed AAA pitching last year after his demotion (.314 BA, 7 HR, 44 RBIs in 100 less at bats). But here's where it gets interesting. According to a recent San Francisco Chronicle report, Johnson battled blurred vision last season as a result of some prescription medication he was taking. With that issue resolved, Johnson should be able to bounce back to his rookie year indicators and provide a nice cheap, hidden power source for some fantasy teams this year.

• Chad Billingsley, SP (LAD) - This kid was supposed to be as good as Cole Hamels last year, if not better. Instead, he stumbled out of the gates in June, and in the fickle world of fantasy baseball, was quickly discarded by many as a bust. He had a good second half (7-2, 3.16 ERA), but still struggled with his control, walking too many and not striking out enough. He's in line for the back end of the Dodger rotation, but should he harness his command, he could quickly become a force in the pitcher-friendly fields of the NL West. Add in some tutelage from newly acquired Jason Schmidt, and this is one end-gamer I'll be adding to every team I can get him.
  

• Jason Kubel, OF/DH (Min) - Jason Kubel was going to be a stud outfielder. He had great ability to get on base and his power was growing with experience. Then he blew his knee out in the Arizona Fall League, missed all of 2005, and spent 2006 on and off the DL with various knee problems. Like Dan Johnson, specialists were able to identify a torn meniscus in the off-season, and repaired it. That, coupled with his weight loss of 10 pounds, puts Kubel in better playing shape and ready to contend for the starting DH/OF spot for the Twins. Should he do so and stay healthy, Kubel might be able to get back on the path to superstardom.

• Matt Garza, SP (Min) - By now it should be obvious the Minnesota Twins have an eye for pitching. Garza is the next top pitching prospect to try and step out of the shadow of Julio Santana. Unfortunately for Garza, he was thrust into the big leagues at a rather quick pace, mostly due to the injuries of Francisco Liriano. The result was a mess: a 3-6 record, 5.76 ERA, 38/23 K/BB Ratio and 1.7 WHIP all in 50 major league innings. Fortunately for fantasy owners, those stats will drive most people away from him. Those who look beyond those stats will find a minor league record of 14-4, a 1.99 ERA, 154/32 K/BB with a stellar .88 WHIP in a little over 135 innings in 2006. The issue may be lack of experience, and for that reason, I wouldn't be surprised to see Garza struggle in the first half, before finally figuring it out after the All-Star break. The talent is definitely there, it's just a matter of time and experience.
  

• Kahlil Greene, SS (SD) - Greene might be a fashionable sleeper this preseason, but he'll likely only show up on those lists because of his age. He turns 27 this year, which puts him in the "sweet spot" for a career year, not to mention he signed a one year deal, which will make him a free agent next year, giving him more motivation. However, Greene's problems are many: he bats in the bottom of the order; he lacks the SBs for a middle infielder; his power has been mediocre; he hasn't been patient at the plate; and he's been nicked up many times. Last year, he seemed to be putting it all together until a torn ligament in his finger prevented him from playing the last two months of the season. Greene isn't even listed on ESPN's top 250 players, which means he'll likely go undrafted in regular mixed leagues. With more motivation to finally reach his potential, and a little luck on the health side, Greene could make an impact in 2007.

• Willy Taveras, OF (Col) – He needs to get his on-base percentage up to remain in the leadoff spot, but should still be able to manage 35 stolen bases, with upside for more.

• Chris Burke, OF (Hou) – Burke will be the full-time center fielder this year. I think part of his problem the last few years was playing too many positions. With only one to focus on this year, he could finally start living up to expectations. He’ll also qualify at 2B this year, always a plus in my book.

• Mark Teahen, 3B (KC) – Alex Gordon is getting all the attention this year, with some pundits already predicting he’ll win the 3B battle. Teahen figured it out last year, and regardless of where he plays, he’ll still qualify at 3B, and likely put up 20-25 homers.