Rushing to Stand Still

Top young hurlers always seem to top people’s wishlists during draft season. Last year was an explosion of young pitchers making an impact in the majors. The amount of talent that was successful was unparalleled to previous years. Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels and a bunch of other young arms help determined the winners of many fantasy leagues last year. Now, a year later, how will these guys survive the sophomore slump? It’s anyone guess, but a significant portion of these guys along with a bunch of younger “veterans” saw a significant increase in innings pitched. Will it lead to an injury this year? Will it contribute to a “sophomore slump”? It’s one factor out of many, but one that can be an indicator to a poorer performance the following year.

From 2004 to 2005 there were 15 starting pitchers under the ageof 30 who saw an increase of innings pitched of a least 40. Of those, seven had decreases in value in 2006. Of those seven, four of those had what wouldbe considered significant decreases in value. Here are the four pitchers who appear to be the most effected by significant workload increases:

Pitcher	Age	Tm	05 increase	06 $ Change
Patterson,John	28	WAS	100.1	$(14)
Chacon,Shawn	28	PIT	88.1	$(12)
Seo,Jae	29	TAM	71.8	$(14)
Towers,Josh	29	TOR	56.1	$(23)

Patterson, the TGR poster-child in 2005 for sleeper pitchers, spent most of the season on the DL managing only 8 starts. The other three posted promising seasons in2005, but were major disappointments in 2006, even though the expectations werenot as high as Patterson. 25% of thepitchers who saw workload increases in 2005, disappointed in 2006, while almost50% actually saw a decrease in value. While this is only one years worth of data, thetrend also exists in 2003 and in 2004. Some names from those years? How about Mark Prior, Brad Penny, Eric Milton, and Byung Yung Kim? All promising arms, all ran into into injury issues the year after a significant increase ininnings.

The pool of players to watch in 2007 is exactly the same size, 15. The major difference is that the numbers of increased innings pitched is significantly higher this year., and the names and pedigrees are significantly higher. Francisco Liriano has already succumbed to Tommy John surgery, but that may have more to do with his jump from 156 innings in 2004 to 192 innings in 2005 (all in the minors),as he only ended up pitching 123 innings last year. Does this mean we’ll see more injuries this year? Maybe, maybenot. But the following pitchers do bear watching and perhaps discounting their value based on this increased workload.

pitcher	Age	Tm	06 Incr/(Decr)
Weaver,Jered	24	LAA	124.0
Cook,Aaron	27	COL	104.1
Hamels,Cole	22	PHI	113.1
Jennings,Jason	28	COL	90.0
Olsen,Scott	22	FLA	80.0
Halladay,Roy	29	TOR	78.8
Sanchez,Anibal	22	FLA	64.5
Marshall,Sean	24	CHC	53.4
Padilla,Vicente	29	TEX	53.0
Armas Jr.,Tony	28	WAS	52.9
Hensley,Clay	27	SD	49.7
Bedard,Erik	27	BAL	47.9
Verlander,Justin	23	DET	47.6
Madson,Ryan	26	PHI	47.1
Meche,Gil	28	SEA	43.1

Some of the pitchers experienced injuries in 2005 (Cook, Hamels, Jennings,Olsen, Halladay, Padilla, Armas,Bedard,) so they should already have some discountbuilt into their prices to account for the injury history. Should this preclude them from the list?Probably not, since only one season separates them from a major injury, and coming back too quickly can hinder one’sperformance. Two of these pitchersmoved from relief to starting (Hensley, Madson)though they were both starters in the minors, so perhaps the effects ofincreased innings may not effect them as much, thoughpast history shows that’s not always the case.

The remaining players definitely bear watching and one is alreadyshowing warning signs of more trouble ahead.

• Jered Weaver is experiencing issues with biceps tendonitis and, in fact, started his off-season workouts a couple weeks later to rest his shoulder.
• Cole Hamels, with his history of injuries, definitely bears watching, though he’s hit the ground running this spring, along with a few other of the pitchers on this list.
• Anibel Sanchez doesn’t have a history of arm problems, but has moved up through the ranks fairly quickly. His no-hitter last year is what’s really put him on the map, but his strikeout rate dropped after his promotion and his walk rate rose. Hopefully, missing AAA ball won’t delay his growth, but the Marlins have burned through more than their share of pitchers in the past
• Sean Marshall was pressed into duties after injuries to various Cubs starters (surprise!), and didn’t do well. He racked up a bunch of innings, but hit the wall later in the season, and is now experiencing “fatigue” in his pitching shoulder. He’s expected to start the season in the minors, so hopefully, they’ll baby him a little more.
• Justin Verlander burst onto the scene last year with teammate Joel Zumaya. Both were starters in the minors, but Verlander was shut down at the end of 2005 because of a shoulder issue. He earned a spot in the rotation in 2006 and after all was said and done ended up pitching 70 more innings than the previous year when you include the playoff run. Verlander, like Weaver, took extra time off in the offseason to rest, so he’s behind in getting ready for the season, and his spring stats have shown it. Don’t be surprised if he gets off to a slow start this year.
• Gil Meche parlayed his 11-8 record with a 4.48 ERA and 1.43 WHIP into a $55 million deal with the Royals. If only we could all turn mediocrity into huge pay raises. Moving to the Royals certainly doesn’t make him a target of many fantasy owners this year, and certainly don’t expect the huge increase in innings to get this guy to the next level. In fact, he might even fade away into obscurity.

Hopefully, this article doesn’tsteer you completely away from these guys, but ideally it will readjust yourexpectations for some of them and prevent you from overpaying or overdrafting them. While these pitchers carry risk, sometimes taking on risk is the onlyway to be the last one standing at the end of the year.